PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parentheses):
Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 42 (44)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Usually you don’t see public pollsters use phrases like “annihilating” in their poll write-ups, but PPP just went there (“Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38.”). It’s hard to tell if last week’s sample was a statistical blip or not (Hagan led +9 and +8 in the two weeks before); the fact that her lead among African-Americans dipped to 78-12 last week (and is now back up to 84-7) suggests that it probably was.
I’m glad to see PPP so relentlessly polling their home state (especially with such gigantic sample sizes), as North Carolina is probably the hottest state in this election, with not just NC-Sen but also the close governor’s race and presidential swing state status. At the top of the ticket, Obama leads McCain 51-44 (with McCain now leading among white voters by only 55-39). Governor’s race numbers will come out tomorrow.
are kicking butt in NC. The down-ticket races in NC will benefit greatly from this. They might even save Bev Perdue in the Gov race.
PPP seems to have a slight Dem bias of 1-2 points, but even adjusting for that we’re in great shape for both races.
Hagan is going to win this one. I say we are guaranteed 5 with Alaska no longer in that category but with North Carolina taking it’s place.
I really hope we get Alaska but that prospect is getting less unsure every day.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…
McCain is up only 46-44 in Georgia. Very nice!